Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

$56K volume·до Oct 31, 2026
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
October 20$570 volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
October 21$3K volume0123456789%
October 22$572 volume0123456789%
October 23$3K volume0123456789%
October 24$534 volume0123456789%
October 25$540 volume0123456789%
October 26$1K volume0123456789%
October 27$359 volume0123456789%
October 28$3K volume0123456789%
October 29$345 volume0123456789%
October 30$569 volume0123456789%
October 31$738 volume0123456789%
No release by October 31$17K volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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“Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.