How do I trade on “Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?” close?

The expected close is до Jan 1, 2027. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?”?

The current trading volume is $22K. It updates in real time.

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

$22K volume·до Jan 1, 2027

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

Anthropic$4K volume01234567890123456789%

PriceSharesTotal

Google$6K volume01234567890123456789%+4 pp

SpaceXAI$380 volume0123456789%

Alibaba$3K volume0123456789%

OpenAI$656 volume0123456789%

Baidu$320 volume0123456789%

Z.ai$1K volume0123456789%

Xiaomi$370 volume0123456789%

Moonshot$600 volume01234567890123456789%

Meta$2K volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp

Nvidia$188 volume0123456789%

DeepSeek$914 volume01234567890123456789%+8 pp

MiniMax$259 volume0123456789%

Meituan$214 volume0123456789%

Amazon$172 volume0123456789%

Bytedance$580 volume0123456789%

Mistral$279 volume0123456789%

Tencent$408 volume0123456789%

StepFun$205 volume0123456789%

Microsoft$232 volume0123456789%

Thinky$240 volume0123456789%

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.