Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

$3.8M volume·до Jan 29, 2028
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
January 2027 Meeting$4K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
March 2027 Meeting$1K volume01234567890123456789%
July 2027 Meeting$127 volume01234567890123456789%
April 2027 Meeting$50 volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp
June 2027 Meeting$27 volume01234567890123456789%
October 2026 Meeting$234K volume0123456789%
December 2026 Meeting$420K volume0123456789%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

✓Market open for trading
Proposed outcome
Final review
Questions and answers

“Fed rate cut by...?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.

Fed rate cut by...? · Melbo