GDP growth in 2026

GDP growth in 2026

$89K volume·до Jan 29, 2027
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
<0.5%$9K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
0.5–1.0%$18K volume0123456789%
1.0–1.5%$6K volume0123456789%
1.5–2.0%$10K volume0123456789%
2.0–2.5%$21K volume01234567890123456789%
>2.5%$25K volume01234567890123456789%-7 pp

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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“GDP growth in 2026” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.

GDP growth in 2026 · Melbo