How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$136K volume·до Dec 31, 2026
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Below 4.00%$7K volume0123456789%
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Below 4.10%$10K volume0123456789%
Below 4.20%$8K volume0123456789%
Below 4.25%$5K volume0123456789%
Below 4.30%$13K volume0123456789%+1 pp
Below 4.35%$26K volume0123456789%+1 pp
Below 4.40%$18K volume01234567890123456789%+2 pp
Below 4.45%$29K volume01234567890123456789%
Below 4.50%$19K volume01234567890123456789%+6 pp

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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“How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.