Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanon Parliamentary Election
$678K volume·до May 11, 2026
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Lebanese Forces (LF)$169K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
Hezbollah (Hezb)$57K volume0123456789%
Amal Movement (Amal)$64K volume0123456789%
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)$81K volume0123456789%
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)$55K volume0123456789%
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)$7K volume0123456789%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)$11K volume0123456789%
Marada Movement (MM)$9K volume0123456789%
Independence Movement (IM)$9K volume0123456789%
Taqaddom Party$12K volume0123456789%
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)$9K volume0123456789%
Islamic Group (IG)$9K volume0123456789%
Union Party (UP)$8K volume0123456789%
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)$11K volume0123456789%
National Liberal Party (NLP)$10K volume0123456789%
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)$14K volume0123456789%
Mada Party (Mada)$28K volume0123456789%
Khatt Ahmar$14K volume0123456789%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)$9K volume0123456789%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)$47K volume0123456789%
Dignity Movement (DM)$29K volume0123456789%
Watani Alliance (Watani)$8K volume0123456789%
ReLebanon$10K volume0123456789%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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“Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner · Melbo