How do I trade on “Closest Senate Race?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “Closest Senate Race?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “Closest Senate Race?” close?

The expected close is до Nov 4, 2026. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “Closest Senate Race?”?

The current trading volume is $35K. It updates in real time.

Closest Senate Race?

$35K volume·до Nov 4, 2026

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

Alaska$2K volume0123456789%

PriceSharesTotal

Montana$472 volume0123456789%

Colorado$230 volume0123456789%

New Mexico$229 volume0123456789%

Texas$3K volume01234567890123456789%-2 pp

Nebraska$942 volume0123456789%+2 pp

Iowa$3K volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp

Minnesota$1K volume0123456789%+1 pp

Michigan$2K volume0123456789%+1 pp

Ohio (Special)$895 volume0123456789%-2 pp

Georgia$229 volume0123456789%

Florida (Special)$2K volume0123456789%+1 pp

Virginia$223 volume0123456789%

North Carolina$230 volume0123456789%

New Hampshire$415 volume0123456789%

Maine$2K volume01234567890123456789%

Kansas$7K volume01234567890123456789%

South Carolina$3K volume0123456789%+1 pp

Alabama$229 volume0123456789%

Arkansas$2K volume0123456789%+3 pp

Delaware$229 volume0123456789%

Idaho$776 volume0123456789%+2 pp

Illinois$229 volume0123456789%

Kentucky$239 volume0123456789%

Louisiana$789 volume0123456789%-2 pp

Massachusetts$229 volume0123456789%

Mississippi$1K volume0123456789%

New Jersey$229 volume0123456789%

Oklahoma$229 volume0123456789%

Oregon$229 volume0123456789%

Rhode Island$229 volume0123456789%

South Dakota$629 volume0123456789%+3 pp

Tennessee$229 volume0123456789%

West Virginia$229 volume0123456789%

Wyoming$220 volume0123456789%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“Closest Senate Race?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.