How do I trade on “Next leader out of power before 2027?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “Next leader out of power before 2027?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “Next leader out of power before 2027?” close?

The expected close is до Jan 1, 2027. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “Next leader out of power before 2027?”?

The current trading volume is $1.3M. It updates in real time.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

$1.3M volume·до Jan 1, 2027

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

Macron - France President$44K volume0123456789%-1 pp

PriceSharesTotal

Erdoğan - Türkiye President$38K volume0123456789%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea$58K volume0123456789%+6 pp

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP$51K volume0123456789%

Netanyahu - Israel PM$256K volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp

Albanese - Australia PM$38K volume0123456789%

Newsom - California Governor$38K volume0123456789%

Milei - Argentina President$42K volume0123456789%

Trump - USA President$45K volume0123456789%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President$44K volume0123456789%

Putin - Russia President$38K volume0123456789%-1 pp

Lula da Silva - Brazil President$50K volume0123456789%

Lecornu - France PM$39K volume0123456789%

Takaichi - Japan PM$37K volume0123456789%

Abbas - President of Palestine$37K volume0123456789%

Merz - German Chancellor$46K volume0123456789%

Sánchez - Spanish PM$57K volume0123456789%-1 pp

Sheinbaum - Mexico President$33K volume0123456789%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President$39K volume0123456789%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President$37K volume0123456789%

al-Sharaa - Syria President$35K volume0123456789%

None before 2027$202K volume01234567890123456789%-4 pp

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“Next leader out of power before 2027?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.