Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

$260K volume·до Sep 14, 2026
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)$67K volume01234567890123456789%+2 pp
PriceSharesTotal
Sweden Democrats (SD)$27K volume0123456789%
Moderate Party (M)$24K volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp
Centre Party (C)$24K volume01234567890123456789%+4 pp
Left Party (V)$42K volume01234567890123456789%
Christian Democrats (KD)$22K volume01234567890123456789%
Green Party (MP)$29K volume01234567890123456789%+2 pp
Liberals (L)$20K volume01234567890123456789%+4 pp
Citizens' Coalition (MED)$3K volume0123456789%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.

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“Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.