How do I trade on “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?” close?

The expected close is до Nov 3, 2026. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?”?

The current trading volume is $4.1M. It updates in real time.

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

$4.1M volume·до Nov 3, 2026

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

All 7$62K volume0123456789%-4 pp

PriceSharesTotal

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH$20K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX$20K volume0123456789%-2 pp

AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX$15K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX$25K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX$23K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX$18K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX$14K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI$21K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, ME, OH$28K volume0123456789%+1 pp

AK, IA, KS, ME, TX$25K volume0123456789%-2 pp

AK, IA, KS, MI, OH$14K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$14K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, OH, TX$31K volume0123456789%+1 pp

AK, IA, ME, MI, OH$13K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$15K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME, OH, TX$21K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, MI, OH, TX$14K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, MI, OH$15K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$14K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, OH, TX$21K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, MI, OH, TX$18K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, MI, OH, TX$18K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, ME, MI, OH$16K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, ME, MI, TX$24K volume0123456789%-3 pp

IA, KS, ME, OH, TX$33K volume0123456789%-1 pp

IA, KS, MI, OH, TX$15K volume0123456789%

IA, ME, MI, OH, TX$16K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, MI, OH, TX$22K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, ME$18K volume0123456789%-2 pp

AK, IA, KS, MI$26K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, OH$33K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS, TX$17K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME, MI$15K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME, OH$16K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME, TX$17K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, MI, OH$19K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, MI, TX$16K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, OH, TX$15K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, MI$17K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, OH$15K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME, TX$14K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, MI, OH$12K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, MI, TX$13K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, OH, TX$19K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, MI, OH$17K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, MI, TX$16K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, OH, TX$17K volume0123456789%

AK, MI, OH, TX$16K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, ME, MI$24K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, ME, OH$26K volume0123456789%-1 pp

IA, KS, ME, TX$20K volume0123456789%-2 pp

IA, KS, MI, OH$33K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, MI, TX$14K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, OH, TX$16K volume0123456789%

IA, ME, MI, OH$17K volume0123456789%

IA, ME, MI, TX$20K volume0123456789%

IA, ME, OH, TX$20K volume0123456789%

IA, MI, OH, TX$12K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, MI, OH$31K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, MI, TX$15K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, OH, TX$19K volume0123456789%

KS, MI, OH, TX$13K volume0123456789%

ME, MI, OH, TX$15K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, KS$17K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, ME$21K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, MI$15K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, OH$21K volume0123456789%

AK, IA, TX$28K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, ME$21K volume0123456789%-1 pp

AK, KS, MI$17K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, OH$18K volume0123456789%

AK, KS, TX$17K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, MI$41K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, OH$19K volume0123456789%

AK, ME, TX$15K volume0123456789%

AK, MI, OH$15K volume0123456789%

AK, MI, TX$14K volume0123456789%

AK, OH, TX$15K volume0123456789%

IA, KS, ME$28K volume0123456789%-1 pp

IA, KS, MI$25K volume0123456789%-1 pp

IA, KS, OH$16K volume0123456789%-1 pp

IA, KS, TX$19K volume0123456789%-3 pp

IA, ME, MI$17K volume0123456789%

IA, ME, OH$20K volume0123456789%

IA, ME, TX$17K volume0123456789%

IA, MI, OH$13K volume0123456789%

IA, MI, TX$14K volume0123456789%

IA, OH, TX$14K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, MI$13K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, OH$14K volume0123456789%

KS, ME, TX$13K volume0123456789%

KS, MI, OH$15K volume0123456789%

KS, MI, TX$13K volume0123456789%

KS, OH, TX$17K volume0123456789%

ME, MI, OH$18K volume0123456789%

ME, MI, TX$36K volume0123456789%

ME, OH, TX$15K volume0123456789%

MI, OH, TX$16K volume0123456789%

AK, IA$16K volume0123456789%

AK, KS$24K volume0123456789%+1 pp

AK, ME$15K volume0123456789%

AK, MI$14K volume0123456789%

AK, OH$16K volume0123456789%

AK, TX$16K volume0123456789%

IA, KS$767K volume01234567890123456789%+4 pp

IA, ME$27K volume0123456789%-1 pp

IA, MI$34K volume0123456789%

IA, OH$32K volume0123456789%

IA, TX$18K volume0123456789%+1 pp

KS, ME$18K volume0123456789%-1 pp

KS, MI$18K volume0123456789%

KS, OH$20K volume0123456789%

KS, TX$22K volume0123456789%

ME, MI$17K volume0123456789%

ME, OH$27K volume0123456789%

ME, TX$26K volume0123456789%

MI, OH$13K volume0123456789%

MI, TX$16K volume0123456789%

OH, TX$16K volume0123456789%

AK$32K volume0123456789%

IA$640K volume01234567890123456789%+4 pp

KS$31K volume0123456789%-2 pp

ME$21K volume0123456789%-1 pp

MI$34K volume0123456789%+1 pp

OH$18K volume0123456789%

TX$40K volume0123456789%

None$230K volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.

Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.

A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.