How do I trade on “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” close?

The expected close is до Jan 1, 2027. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?”?

The current trading volume is $257K. It updates in real time.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

$257K volume·до Jan 1, 2027

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

Wang Yi$16K volume0123456789%

PriceSharesTotal

Cai Qi$56K volume0123456789%

Li Qiang$13K volume0123456789%

Wang Huning$14K volume0123456789%

Zhao Leji$13K volume0123456789%

Ding Xuexiang$29K volume0123456789%

Li Xi$31K volume0123456789%-1 pp

Zhang Shengmin$34K volume0123456789%

Dong Jun$51K volume0123456789%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.

2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.

A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.