Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$166K volume·до Nov 4, 2026
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate$49K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate$31K volume0123456789%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$37K volume01234567890123456789%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$50K volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

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“Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.