Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
$308K volume·до Nov 4, 2026
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate$99K volume0123456789%
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate$102K volume0123456789%-1 pp
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$60K volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$47K volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
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“Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.