Will Russia invade another country by...?
$620K volume·до Jan 1, 2028
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
December 31, 2027$6K volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp
December 31, 2026$615K volume0123456789%-1 pp
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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“Will Russia invade another country by...?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.