Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

$3.8M volume·до Mar 2, 2027
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
1$724K volume01234567890123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
2$474K volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp
3$534K volume0123456789%
4$555K volume0123456789%
5$905K volume0123456789%
6 or lower$605K volume0123456789%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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“Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? · Melbo