SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

$35K volume·до Jul 1, 2027
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
October 31, 2026$11K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
November 30, 2026$6K volume01234567890123456789%-7 pp
Super Heavy booster explodes?$2K volume01234567890123456789%+2 pp
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?$4K volume01234567890123456789%
Chopsticks catch Starship?$6K volume01234567890123456789%+5 pp
Successful splash down?$840 volume01234567890123456789%-3 pp
November 15, 2026$4K volume01234567890123456789%+10 pp

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

✓Market open for trading
Proposed outcome
Final review
Questions and answers

“SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.