How do I trade on “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?” close?

The expected close is до Dec 31, 2026. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?”?

The current trading volume is $2.6M. It updates in real time.

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

$2.6M volume·до Dec 31, 2026

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

Google$307K volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp

PriceSharesTotal

Anthropic$368K volume01234567890123456789%+3 pp

OpenAI$219K volume0123456789%-1 pp

Alibaba$150K volume0123456789%

Z.ai$133K volume0123456789%

xAI$170K volume0123456789%

DeepSeek$148K volume0123456789%

Moonshot$156K volume0123456789%

Mistral$192K volume0123456789%

Meituan$103K volume0123456789%

Microsoft$120K volume0123456789%

Meta$190K volume0123456789%-1 pp

Amazon$114K volume0123456789%

Baidu$117K volume0123456789%

ByteDance$126K volume0123456789%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“Which company has best AI model end of 2026?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.