How do I trade on “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?”?

Choose an outcome, enter an amount and confirm the trade. A share’s price is the market’s implied probability; the minimum trade is $1. You can sell your shares at any time before settlement.

How will “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?” be resolved?

The market settles by the actual outcome of the event: shares of the correct outcome pay $1 each. The exact criteria are in the market rules above.

When does “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?” close?

The expected close is до Jan 1, 2027. You can close your position at any time before settlement.

What is the trading volume of “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?”?

The current trading volume is $7.1M. It updates in real time.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$7.1M volume·до Jan 1, 2027

OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE

2.25%$95K volume0123456789%

PriceSharesTotal

2.5%$182K volume0123456789%

2.75%$71K volume0123456789%

3.0%$502K volume0123456789%

3.25%$88K volume0123456789%

3.5%$209K volume0123456789%

3.75%$541K volume0123456789%

4.0%$1.4M volume01234567890123456789%-1 pp

4.25%$577K volume01234567890123456789%

≥ 4.5%$2.4M volume01234567890123456789%+1 pp

≤1.0%$274K volume0123456789%

1.25$155K volume0123456789%

1.5%$152K volume0123456789%

1.75%$155K volume0123456789%

2.0%$271K volume0123456789%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

✓Market open for trading

Proposed outcome

Final review

Questions and answers

“What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.