What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

$112K volume·до Apr 1, 2027
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Under 1.5$2K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
1.5–2.0$5K volume0123456789%
2.0–2.25$6K volume0123456789%+1 pp
2.25–2.5$50K volume01234567890123456789%
Over 2.5$50K volume01234567890123456789%

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".

The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).

The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

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“What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? · Melbo