Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$96K volume·до Mar 1, 2027
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Gideon Sa’ar$12K volume0123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
Yair Lapid$5K volume01234567890123456789%+14 pp
Israel Katz$5K volume0123456789%-1 pp
Avigdor Lieberman$9K volume01234567890123456789%-4 pp
Benny Gantz$2K volume0123456789%
Yossi Cohen$569 volume0123456789%
Ron Dermer$821 volume0123456789%-1 pp
Eli Cohen$993 volume0123456789%-1 pp
Gadi Eizenkot$25K volume0123456789%-6 pp
Benjamin Netanyahu$540 volume0123456789%
Amir Ohana$555 volume0123456789%
Naftali Bennett$5K volume01234567890123456789%
Yair Golan$547 volume0123456789%
Yoram Cohen$900 volume0123456789%+1 pp
No Next Minister by Feb 28$29K volume01234567890123456789%+3 pp

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.

The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.

If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.

If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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“Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.