Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

$9K volume·до Oct 28, 2026
OUTCOMESPROBABILITY · PRICE
Benjamin Netanyahu$580 volume01234567890123456789%
PriceSharesTotal
Naftali Bennett$308 volume0123456789%
Yair Lapid$362 volume0123456789%
Gadi Eizenkot$2K volume01234567890123456789%
Benny Gantz$448 volume0123456789%
Avigdor Lieberman$333 volume0123456789%
Yossi Cohen$426 volume0123456789%
Yair Golan$394 volume0123456789%
Itamar Ben Gvir$445 volume0123456789%
Gideon Sa’ar$359 volume0123456789%
Yariv Levin$403 volume0123456789%
Moshe Feiglin$353 volume0123456789%
Ayelet Shaked$326 volume0123456789%
Yoaz Hendel$363 volume0123456789%
Israel Katz$366 volume0123456789%
Nir Barkat$449 volume0123456789%
Amir Ohana$358 volume0123456789%
Gilad Erdan$484 volume0123456789%
Ofer Winter$338 volume0123456789%

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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“Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?” is a prediction market on Melbo. A share’s price reflects the probability of the outcome: on the correct outcome each share settles at $1, on the wrong one at $0.